The computer hardware industry is not in a particularly good situation, caused by an anomalous period such as COVID-19. Now, a new TrendForce report has been released indicating new bad data for storage drives. According to the report, the price of SSDs and microSD cards will fall by 15% in the next quarter.
These data are bad, really bad. We must remember that we closed 2022 with a 25% drop in SSD prices. We can now find a lot of 1TB M.2 and SATA drives under $100. With the new data, the price could even fall below 80 euros.
Brutal collapse of the SSD market
Kioxia, Solidgim, Micron, WDC, SK Hynix, and Samsung are the largest manufacturers of SSDs in the market. They have all cut memory chip production due to the poor market situation. A very complicated situation for all these manufacturers, who have seen demand from consumers and companies plummet.
Samsung is perhaps a separate case today. The company has announced heavy investment in R&D to stay ahead of its rivals. Note that, in 2022, SK Hynix announced 238-layer NAND Flash memories and 232-layer Micron memories. This increase in layers supposes a reduction in the Terabyte cost.
Something interesting is that currently we do not find PLC-type NAND Flash memories. PLC memories are those that store five bits per cell. This would mean an increase in the capacities of the SSDs.
But, it is that not only SSDs have suffered a drop in sales, but also microSD memories. Currently, 1 TB capacity microSD memories can be found on the market for around 140-150 euros. Although it may seem expensive, the price of these memories has plummeted by about 50% compared to a year ago. As if that were not enough, an additional 30% price drop is expected.
This means that the memories of 512 GB, 256 GB and 128 GB will have ridiculous prices. It is estimated that the 64 GB microSD memories will last a while longer on the market, but the 32 GB ones are expected to disappear.
We see something similar in 256 GB USB memories, which we can find for 20-30 euros, with a price adjustment between 30-50%. These units could also fall in price until the end of the year by an additional 30%.
Until the end of the year, prices would continue to fall
SSDs (both M.2 and SATA) as well as microSD and USB memories will continue to fall in price. No change in trend is expected this year. The price could stabilize by the end of the year, but an increase does not seem possible.
We must bear in mind that the price of PCIe 4.0 SSDs should plummet before the arrival of M.2 PCIe 5.0 drives. These units, very predictably, will have little or no acceptance by users. They will be expensive drives, with cumbersome fanned heatsinks, and expensive motherboards are required to install these drives.
I still think that sticking with the current M.2 format is a mistake that limits the capabilities and performance of SSDs. Developing a solution similar to RAM memories I think is smarter and more efficient.
