The modern battlefields have gained another dimension with the widespread proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles. Drones, as they are commonly known, have found their way into every layer of warfighting, including ISR, offensive operations, and direct kinetic roles. However, the future of drones promises an array of interesting developments that will make this technology a fundamental resource on any battlefield. 
Advanced Loitering Munitions
Offensive UAVs are nothing new. In fact, some of the first unmanned aerial vehicles were designed with offensive capabilities in mind. UCAVs such as the MQ-9 Reaper have made it possible to engage targets at large distances without risking the operator’s lives in the process.
Yet, UAVs of this type tend to have a large radar signature. Take Northrop Grumman’s Global Hawk as an example. This High Altitude Long Endurance platform has proven to be an invaluable ISR asset, as well as an air support asset in numerous theaters of operation around the world. The issue with the RQ-4 and UAV/UCAVs of a similar footprint is their survivability in conflicts against peer or near-peer opponents.
Loitering munitions solve many of these issues by turning the drone itself into a weapon. IAI Harop, an Israeli-made loitering munition, has demonstrated the tactical and strategic value of this type of weapon on the battlefield. Designed as a SEAD optimized, stealth-enabled loitering munition, IAI Harop is capable of autonomous operation against SAM sites and other sources of ionizing radiation. The recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has seen heavy use of IAI Harop. However, Azeri forces, the main operator of this particular loitering munition, have routinely struck soft targets, artillery positions, and infantry carriers, thus demonstrating the performance arc of Harop when used in manual mode.
That being said, there are more interesting models in the development pipeline. Future loitering munitions, developed by CP Aeronautics, will have an even smaller footprint. It will also carry larger payloads and offer more flexibility to battlefield commanders on the front lines of future conflicts.
Drone Swarms
Most current trends in UAV development point in one direction — drone swarms. Numerous militaries and defense contractors around the world are working on developing fully autonomous, highly capable drone swarms.
Drone swarms bring a number of potentially game-changing solutions to the table. Having dozens if not hundreds of small, agile drones loitering in the same area can give your ground force a massive advantage in terms of battlefield awareness as well as firepower.
Russian Ministry of Defense has employed experimental Orland-10 and Eleron-3 drones in small swarms during the 2020 military maneuvers. The UK MoD is working on the LANCA program, while the U.S.A.F is developing drone swarm technologies through its Golden Horde program.
All of these programs have one thing in common — the development of semi-autonomous or fully autonomous drone swarms capable of ISR, SEAD, and CAS roles. Furthermore, loitering drone swarms bring immense potential in combined arms operations where they are employed along with large-scale guided artillery elements such as the U.S. Excalibur or the Russian Krasnopol-D.
Any further leaps in drone swarm capabilities are partially dependent on the development of high-level AI technologies and bulletproof communications systems. Modern drone propulsion systems are proving to be more than capable of giving smaller UAVs the ability to reach targets 1000 miles away, loiter for up to 8 hours, and engage targets kinetically.
Ensuring encrypted communication and EW-resistant networking will prove to be essential in conflicts involving two sophisticated near-peer forces.
Countering the Drone Threat
Drone swarms of the future will pose an immense threat to any modern military force. Current SHORAD systems employed by most countries around the world most likely won’t be effective in countering the threat of small drones. With SHORAD batteries almost completely vulnerable, long-distance air defense systems, critical C&C infrastructure, and logistical routes will also be exposed.
Countering the drone threat will come down to advanced electronic warfare with a limited focus on kinetic solutions. While such counter-drone technologies won’t be too difficult to develop for technologically advanced militaries, state actors who lack the research and development capabilities will find themselves facing a serious problem.
Future conflicts between smaller countries will be won by the side which has a developed drone infrastructure. Drones, especially drone swarms and standard loitering munitions, will be a massive force multiplier.
The next generation of drones will likely gain a more aggressive Air to Air role as new propulsion systems could allow drones to engage fast-flying aircraft as well as ground targets.